Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2023/iii/paper-210/4/solution

The total variation distance and Kullback-Leibler divergence are
with the divergence when is not absolutely continuous with respect to .
For and ,
If , direct integration on the intervals cut by and gives
Consequently
One squared-loss form of Assouad's lemma is as follows. Suppose is an Assouad hypercube such that
and every pair of neighboring vertices satisfies . Then
To prove it, decode from a nearest hypercube vertex. The separation condition converts estimation loss into a constant multiple of its Hamming error. Average this error under the uniform prior on and sum coordinatewise. For each coordinate, the two equally weighted mixtures with that bit equal to zero or one have total variation at most by convexity. The minimum average error of any binary test is , which gives the displayed bound after the nearest-vertex factor.
We now build such a hypercube inside the monotone cone. Let and . Divide the first coordinates into consecutive blocks. For , set on block
and extend the remaining coordinates at the last level. If are sufficiently small universal constants, every signal is nondecreasing and belongs to .
Neighboring vertices differ by on one block, so their squared Euclidean separation is . Their product experiments differ only on that block and have
By Pinsker's inequality, choosing small makes every neighboring total variation distance at most, say, .
Apply Assouad's lemma with normalized squared loss . Here , and hence
This proves the lower half of the minimax rate for isotonic sequence estimation.

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