Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2024/iii/paper-218/1/a/solution

Write for the colony count and for the dose on plate . The first fit is the Poisson regression
Thus its log-likelihood is
The Poisson deviance relative to the saturated model is
where a summand with uses .
At dose zero the fitted expected value is eradicated colonies. Increasing dose by one unit multiplies the fitted mean by ; for example, an increase of units multiplies it by about . The positive fitted effect is small and its displayed two-sided -value, , gives little evidence against a zero dose coefficient.

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