Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2025/ii/paper-3/5k/solution

Let be independent. In the general exponential-dispersion formulation, with known weights and common dispersion , their densities have the form
Thus
The systematic component is , and a specified one-to-one differentiable link relates it to the mean by
The unknown model parameters are the regression coefficient and, when it is not fixed by the family, the dispersion .
The log-likelihood is
up to terms independent of the parameters, where is determined from .
For a Poisson response,
so the natural parameter is and . The canonical link sets the linear predictor equal to the natural parameter and is therefore

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