Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2025/iii/paper-219/3/c/solution

The Markov factorization is
Differentiating its log-likelihood with respect to gives
Its coefficients sum to one, so it is unbiased. Direct covariance calculation, equivalently inversion of its Fisher information, gives
Thus the variance tends to as , because the observations become perfectly correlated, and to as , because they become three independent draws.

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