Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/undated/prelims/mathematics-iii-resit/7/c/iv/solution

Compute fitted responses and regression residuals . A conventional residual plot shows against or ; plotting against observation order additionally looks for runs. One checks for curvature, changing spread and other structure rather than random scatter around zero.
An ordinary residual plot need not reveal this failure of independence. The errors have constant mean zero, constant variance one and zero pairwise covariances, so the usual trend and changing-variance clues need not appear. A visually patternless residual plot cannot validate independence; fitted regression residuals themselves also share the fitted coefficients even when the true errors are independent.
There is detectable dependence in the magnitudes. The Gaussian fourth moment is , giving for every adjacent pair
For , the product is ; for , it is , with the same expected value 3. Large magnitudes tend to occur together. A lagged plot of squared regression residuals or a test directed at dependence in their squares is more informative. Thus recognition is possible with suitable diagnostics, but is not guaranteed by the standard residual plot requested here.

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