Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-year-1-of-the-natural-sciences-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2006/paper-1/7/b/i/solution

For to make a first throw, must first pass, with probability . For then to win on that throw, must roll one of two winning faces, with probability . The throws are independent, giving
A first throw of by would make win without throwing, and is excluded by the requested event.

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