Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-mathematics-course-of-the-year-1-of-the-natural-sciences-course-of-the-university-of-cambridge/2016/paper-1/16/a/ii/solution

For a stop-phase arrival at time , the delay is . An interval of delays of width therefore corresponds to an interval of arrival phases of the same width, because . Its unconditional probability is . Hence the positive-delay part has density
This ordinary density integrates to , not to one: the remaining probability mass is at . Thus has a uniform distribution with an atom at zero, with mixing weight . Conditional on a positive delay, the density would instead be on .

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