Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-i-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/o/2/c/solution

The total under has Poisson distribution with mean , and the observed total is . Its one-sided p-value is therefore
The supplied also shows that the observed count does not enter the approximate 10% upper-tail rejection region. Thus there is insufficient evidence to reject at either the 10% or 5% level. The question specifies no testing level, so the p-value gives the general conclusion: rejection is justified only at levels at least about .
The printed concerns a Poisson variable with mean one, not the twelve-month total. It is therefore not the null tail for this data; substituting it would incorrectly treat the yearly count as one month's count.

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