Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2004/n/n2/b/ii/solution
Past exam of the options II course of the University of Oxford 2004 N N2 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For an irreducible positive recurrent Markov chain, the Markov chain ergodic theorem gives a unique stationary distribution , with almost-sure long-run occupation fraction in state . More generally, time averages of an integrable state reward converge to its stationary mean. If the chain is also aperiodic, then for every initial state ; the aperiodicity assumption is needed for this last distributional conclusion.
For either transition rule in part (i), permits progression through the phase-A states and a return from phase B to zero. Both chains are finite and irreducible, hence positive recurrent. State has a positive self-loop, so both are aperiodic. Thereforeusing respectively the cumulative or consecutive stationary distribution given in part (i), for every starting distribution.
The excluded endpoint cases are simple: at , phase B is eventually reached and then absorbing, so the limiting law is the point mass at . At , the cumulative rule traps the chain at its current phase-A count (or eventually at zero if started in phase B), so the limit can depend on the initial count; under the consecutive rule zero is eventually absorbing. Irreducibility and the preceding stationary formulas must not be asserted unchanged at these endpoints.
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