Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2008-printed-variant/o/o5/solution

For a normal sample of size ,
Then and with . These two statistics are independent.
Combining the difference distribution and pooled variance calculation gives, with ,
The printed statistic has the sign of the centering term reversed. Its numerator subtracts , so it is not generally a central Student statistic; the corrected centering above is necessary. Under the null hypothesis , the two expressions coincide, so the requested test is unaffected. Reject the two-sided null at significance level when
Here and , so do not reject at the 5% level. This does not establish equality of the population means.
Age matching means that the two observations in a pair share an age effect, while ages vary across pairs. The independent, identically distributed two-sample model no longer represents this design: random pair effects induce within-pair dependence, and fixed differing ages can instead produce different individual means. Pairing by itself need not cause stochastic dependence when ages are treated as fixed. The appropriate alternative is a paired t-test on the within-pair differences. Removing shared age variation can reduce the noise and improve power when age strongly affects volume and the members of a pair are positively associated. Improvement is not automatic, since the paired test also uses fewer degrees of freedom.

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