Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2010/m/m5/e/ii/solution

Let . For , the chain is irreducible and its stationary probability distribution makes it positive recurrent. The mean-return-time identity gives
This counts a self-loop at zero as a return after one time unit, as “next zero” requires. Equivalently, with probability that immediate return occurs; with probability the chain moves to one and then has mean hitting time back to zero, giving . If , the return is deterministically at time one and the displayed formula still equals one.

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