Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/b/ii/solution

We use the stationary weights of a reflected birth-death chain, also verifying why they decide the question. If a stationary distribution exists, its equation at zero is . At , stationarity gives
Thus the edge flow is constant, and its value at the boundary is zero. Every stationary distribution must therefore satisfy detailed balance on each edge. Since irreducibility forces , it must be proportional to
Conversely, if , normalizing these positive weights gives a probability distribution satisfying detailed balance, hence a stationary distribution. Existence of a stationary distribution for an irreducible Markov chain on a countable state space is equivalent to positive recurrence.
The ratio is
For , the limit is less than one, so the ratio test gives summability. For , observe that , whereas . Thus for every , so the weights cannot be summable. This also resolves without making an inconclusive appeal to the limiting ratio. Therefore

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