Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2021/2/b/ii/solution

Write . If occurs, the running maximum at time exceeds , so and .
For the reverse inclusion, fix an outcome for which only finitely many occur. Choose such that for every . The finite prefix has a finite maximum when ; there is no prefix to check when . Since , for every sufficiently large that prefix satisfies . For the remaining indices , the nondecreasing thresholds give
Thus for every sufficiently large , so only finitely many occur. Taking the contrapositive proves the reverse inclusion, and hence the pointwise event equality
This exceedance equivalence for increasing thresholds is deterministic. Its proof uses both monotonicity of and divergence to ; it does not require independence or identical probability distributions.

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