Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-measure-and-martingales-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/1/c/i/solution
Past exam of the probability, measure and martingales course of the University of Oxford 2023 1 c i Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-25
The first entrance time is a stopping time, because . Before this time ; at entrance, the bounded increments give . Thus the stopped martingaleis a nonnegative martingale. Here the stopped process is a martingale since its increment is , whose conditional expectation given is zero.
The martingale convergence theorem states that a nonnegative martingale converges almost surely to a finite integrable random variable; indeed its expectations are constant, giving the required bound in the L1 norm. Apply this theorem to . On the stopped process equals the original one at every time. HenceThe overshoot bound is why the assumption of bounded increments matters.
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