Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/m/m4/d/i/solution

Under the intended independent-marking interpretation, the coach colors are independent also of the arrival process. Let be the index of the first white coach. Then , , independently of the exponential interarrival times. For , , so conditioning on gives
Thus , the waiting time in the thinned Poisson process. If , no white coach arrives and . Independence of colors from arrival times is needed for this distribution; mutual independence of colors alone would not rule out marks chosen using the interarrival durations.

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