Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2009/m/m4/d/ii/solution

The total is the independent random sum , with the empty sum zero. Conditional on , its moment generating function is . The Poisson probability generating function therefore gives
Assuming a moment generating function in a neighborhood of zero, write and . Conditional expectation and variance yield
The second contribution to the variance is due to randomness in the number of arriving coaches, not just randomness in the occupancy of each coach.

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