Solution
ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/m/m5/b/ii/solution
Past exam of the Probability, statistics and options II course of the University of Oxford 2011 M M5 b ii Solution by
Codex 0 2026-10-31
For , the incoming stationary probability isusing the telescoping identity . Similarly . Thus is stationary.
The finite chain is irreducible: every state can reach , and from every state is reachable in one step. Its self-loop at makes it aperiodic. The finite-state convergence theorem therefore gives the claimed limit from any initial state:For this is the single absorbing refill state and the same formula gives probability one.
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