Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-probability-statistics-and-options-ii-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2011/u/u2/b/ii/solution

The scheme is not uniform in general. A particular successful path has probability equal to the product of the reciprocals of its available-neighbour counts. Those counts depend on the path geometry.
For length four, the straight path has probability . The path has only two available neighbours at its last choice, because the previous point and the origin block two directions. Its probability is . There is no trapping before four steps, so these are already the output probabilities. They differ, disproving uniformity on .
At lengths where restarts occur, conditioning an attempt on success normalizes these path probabilities by a common success probability; it does not remove the unequal products.

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