Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-short-options-paper-shared-by-parts-a-and-b-of-the-physics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2019/s25/2/a/solution

is the imposed radiative forcing; is the restoring change in outgoing radiation; and transfers heat from the surface layer to the deep ocean, whose equal and opposite gain appears in its own energy balance. The additional is a radiative adjustment correlated with the surface–deep-ocean temperature contrast, representing a pattern-dependent effective feedback rather than another conserved interlayer heat flux.
For constant forcing, final equilibrium has . During transient warming , so the radiative response inferred from a recent global energy budget is . If that response were mistaken for the final feedback, the inferred equilibrium climate sensitivity would be too small. Summing the two equations makes the distinction explicit: .

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