in the normalized rate convention. Using 273K for the Celsius zero instead would give 4.4∘C. The local slope is −0.2+4.43(6)/(22.15)2≃−0.1458km−1<0, as required. Initially z−=1.3083km and zslope≃2.230km, while z+=4km.
As Ts slowly rises, melt loss increases at fixed z, the stable high branch moves downward and the unstable branch upward. They merge at
Beyond the fold the model has no steady coldice cap: its net balance is negative throughout the physical interval and ice shrinks until the assumed law ceases to apply. Quasistatic tracking presumes adjustment is fast compared with the imposed warming, an assumption that deteriorates near the foldas the restoring slope tends to zero. This singular idealized law is not a quantitative real-worldmelting forecast.