Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-statistics-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2023/3/b/ii/solution

The posterior mean is a convex combination of the prior mean and the usual Poisson maximum-likelihood estimate:
Both weights are positive and sum to one, so the mean lies between and , strictly between them unless they coincide. If all counts are zero, is the boundary estimate in the usual nonnegative Poisson parameter space; with a strictly positive parameter restriction it represents the likelihood supremum at that boundary. The displayed posterior-mean relation is valid in either interpretation.

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