Solution

ID: past-exam-of-the-year-1-of-the-computer-science-course-of-the-university-of-oxford/2003/calculus-probability-linear-algebra-discrete-mathematics-logic-and-proof-and-models-of-computation/5/a/iii/solution

Let be the indicator random variable that coin shows a head. Each expectation is , so linearity of expectation gives the expected number of heads:
For the game, write for the probability that eventually holds all coins when starting with . The states are absorbing, so and . Conditioning on the first toss and using the law of total probability gives
Thus : successive differences are constant, and . The boundary values give , , hence the gambler's ruin answer is
For completeness, the game terminates with probability one. From any nonabsorbing state, a run of consecutive heads would reach within the next tosses, and that run has probability . Conditional on survival, the same bound applies to the next block. Therefore the probability of surviving tosses is at most , which tends to zero.

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