Poisson observation scheme and rate likelihood

ID: poisson-observation-scheme-and-rate-likelihood

A Poisson process observed for a fixed duration has likelihood proportional to . Complete independent exponential distribution gaps observed until a fixed event count have likelihood . Both give count divided by exposure, but the exposure is random in the second design. Under fixed exposure the total count is sufficient: conditional on it, the event locations are independent of the rate, so exact timestamps add no rate information to interval counts. Gap estimates and fixed-horizon estimates should not be compared without distinguishing their stopping rules and any final censored gap.

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