Posterior coin count after exactly one head

ID: posterior-coin-count-after-exactly-one-head

Let have the positive-integer geometric distribution with success parameter , and conditionally toss independent coins with head probability . Exactly one head has conditional probability . Combining this with the prior by Bayes theorem gives the displayed posterior with ; its normalization uses . For , the posterior is . It is also a shifted negative binomial distribution, with equal in law to the number of failures before two successes of probability .

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