Posterior covariance matrix

ID: posterior-covariance-matrix

For a vector parameter with finite second moments and posterior mean , the posterior covariance matrix records its uncertainty and linear dependence after conditioning on the observations. Its diagonal entries are posterior variances. In a regular locally flat-prior normal distribution approximation it is the inverse observed information. A quadratic form has posterior expectation equal to the form at the posterior mean plus the trace of its matrix times this covariance.

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