Product martingale for three-player token exchange

ID: product-martingale-for-three-player-token-exchange

Three players with positive integer holdings exchange a token by choosing an unordered active pair uniformly, then choosing the transfer direction fairly. Let be the conserved total, and the stopping time of the first elimination. Given holdings before , the conditional expectation of the change of their product is : transfers in each pair decrease the mean product by the third holding. Thus the displayed stopped process is a martingale. Its nonnegative product term gives , so the monotone convergence theorem first proves integrability of . The bounded product then vanishes by the dominated convergence theorem, yielding . Continuing the deterministic time term beyond elimination instead produces a submartingale.

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