 Progressive illness-death model

This continuous-time multi-state model permits progression $1\to 2$, direct death $1\to 3$, and death after progression $2\to 3$, with no recovery and death an absorbing state. For constant positive rates $a,b,c$, write $\lambda =a+b$. Integrating over the time of the progression arrow givesUse $at{e}^{-ct}$ when $\lambda =c$. The other transition probabilities are $p_{11}=e^{-\lambda t}$, $p_{13}=1-p_{11}-p_{12}$, $p_{22}=e^{-ct}$, $p_{23}=1-e^{-ct}$ and $p_{33}=1$. Unlike a purely sequential irreversible three-state disease model, the direct-death rate contributes to the first-state exit rate. A mixed panel and exact-death likelihood accounts for panel visits and exact death times with different kinds of factors.