 Repeat-count targets under shared model error

Repeat-count targets under shared model error choose how many independent readings are worth averaging when part of the uncertainty is common to every repeat. In the local measurement model $X_i=S+D+{ϵ}_i$, let the shared discrepancy have variance ${\tau }^2$, and the independent repeat noise have variance ${\sigma }^2$. Assuming the two components are independent,The common term produces covariance between readings and survives averaging. The GUM's correlated-input rule retains precisely such shared contributions.^[ref]

For a desired total standard uncertainty $u_{\ast }>\tau$, solve the inequality before choosing the integer repeat count:If $\sigma >0$, a target equal to $\tau$ cannot be attained with any finite repeat count, and a target below $\tau$ is unattainable within this model. This is the feasibility threshold for averaging under shared uncertainty.

In an original body surface area example, take $\sigma =0.04{\mathrm{m}}^2$ and $\tau =0.08{\mathrm{m}}^2$. A target $u_{\ast }=0.081{\mathrm{m}}^2$ needs ten repeats; $u_{\ast }=0.0801{\mathrm{m}}^2$ needs one hundred. A target of $0.079{\mathrm{m}}^2$ instead requires reducing the shared component or changing the model. Merely collecting more readings is insufficient.

Two relative criteria illustrate why the target must be explicit. Requiring repeat-noise variance to be at most $\eta {\tau }^2$ gives $n\ge {\sigma }^2/(\eta {\tau }^2)$: at $\eta =0.01$, 25 repeats suffice. Requiring total standard uncertainty within 1% of its floor instead giveswhich needs 13 repeats with the same stipulated numbers. A 1% variance criterion and a 1% standard-uncertainty criterion are different requirements.

The calculation assumes independent repeat noise and a justified shared-error model. Repeated observations alone cannot estimate an individual fixed discrepancy; independent reference measurements or a suitable validation population are needed to constrain it.