 RNA baseline extrapolation

RNA baseline extrapolation continues a fitted folded-state or unfolded-state RNA melting baseline from its observed temperature range into the transition region. It is necessary when estimating populations from RNA optical melting, because both hypothetical pure-state signals are needed at temperatures where the measured sample contains a mixture.

For a linear folded baseline, choose a reference $T_0$ and writeThe reference merely changes parameterization. An original fit with $T_0=300\mathrm{K}$, $a=0.400$ and $b=0.001{\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$ predicts 0.420 at $320\mathrm{K}$ and 0.450 at $350\mathrm{K}$. The first prediction might interpolate within measured data; the second extrapolates if all folded-state observations were below $320\mathrm{K}$.

The inferred population depends on that continuation. At $350\mathrm{K}$, suppose measured absorbance is 0.600 and the unfolded RNA melting baseline is 0.700. The linear folded-baseline prediction givesIf the actual pure folded-state response there were 0.490, the same optical-mixture equation would instead give $f_U\approx 0.524$. A good fit in a limited low-temperature region does not rule out curvature beyond it.

RNA baseline prediction covariance is important even within the chosen linear model. With $x=T-T_0$,For stipulated independent fit parameters $u_a=0.002$ and $u_b=0.0002{\mathrm{K}}^{-1}$, the prediction's standard uncertainty rises from 0.002 at $x=0$ to approximately 0.0102 at $x=50\mathrm{K}$. This is uncertainty propagation for estimated parameters; it does not include unmodeled curvature.^[ref]

Optical-melting experiments fit signal curves to infer thermodynamics.^[ref] Report which regions constrain each RNA melting baseline, inspect residuals and compare plausible baseline forms. Confidence in the fitted parameters and confidence in the functional form are different parts of the inference.