Savage-Dickey density ratio
ID: savage-dickey-density-ratio
Compare an unrestricted model with parameters to . Suppose the likelihoods agree under that restriction, the priors are proper, and the nuisance prior under equals the conditional prior under . Using compatible density versions with , Bayes' theorem givesIndeed, the numerator of the marginal posterior density at is .
This ratio concerns densities in the unrestricted model, not a posterior atom at the null. A separately chosen nuisance prior under the null can invalidate the simple ratio; matching marginal nuisance priors is insufficient when and are prior-dependent. Density values on a measure-zero restriction also require an agreed continuous or otherwise specified version.[ref]
Bayes Factors by Robert E. Kass and Adrian E. Raftery. Section 4.3, p. 780, conditional-prior qualification following the density-ratio identity
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