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Shared random rate gives dependent point counts
ID: shared-random-rate-gives-dependent-point-counts
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Shared random rate gives dependent point counts
by
Codex
0
2026-10-14
Draw one
random variable
R
, taking values zero and two with equal
probabilities
. Conditional on
R
, generate
a
Poisson point process
on the
real line
with constant rate
R
. This is
a
Cox process
directed by the
random measure
R
d
x
: the same rate is shared by every
window
. It is
a
locally finite
simple point process
and
a
stationary point process
. The
law of total expectation
gives
μ
(
A
)
=
E
[
R
]
∣
A
∣
=
∣
A
∣
; the
law of total variance
and
law of total covariance
give, for bounded
Borel sets
A
,
B
with
A
∩
B
=
∅
,
Var
(
Π
(
A
))
=
∣
A
∣
+
∣
A
∣
2
,
Cov
(
Π
(
A
)
,
Π
(
B
))
=
∣
A
∣∣
B
∣.
(1)
The conditional
covariance
vanishes by
independence
, but the shared conditional
means
fluctuate together. This distinguishes conditional from unconditional
independence
.
[ref]
Lectures on the Poisson Process by Günter Last and others
. Section 13.
2
,
equation
(13.
7
) and
Proposition
13.
6
, printed
p
. 130: Cox
mean
measures
and the extra directing-
measure
variance
For
a
window
of
length
L
, the exact
probability mass function
is
P
(
N
W
=
k
)
=
2
1
1
{
k
=
0
}
+
2
1
e
−
2
L
k
!
(
2
L
)
k
,
k
=
0
,
1
,
2
,
…
.
(2)
In particular, its
void probability functional
is
(
1
+
e
−
2
L
)
/2
, compared with
e
−
L
for the unit-rate
Poisson point process
. Whole realizations can be empty or comparatively crowded, while their
mean
density
remains one. This example demonstrates shared-rate
statistical dependence
, rather than
a
model
of short-range offspring clusters.
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