 Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem

For a finite outcome space, complete lottery preferences, a transitive relation, continuity of lottery preferences and the independence axiom for lottery preferences are equivalent to an expected utility representation of the displayed form. The representing outcome utility function is unique up to a positive affine function. The theorem is associated with John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern.

A useful proof construction selects a best outcome $a$ and a worst outcome $b$. If all outcomes are indifferent, a constant utility function suffices. Otherwise assign $u(a)=1$, $u(b)=0$. Continuity of lottery preferences makes each outcome indifferent to a mixture $u(\omega )a+(1-u(\omega ))b$, and mixture monotonicity makes the coefficient unique. Substitution of indifferent lotteries and reduction of compound lotteries turn any lottery into a best–worst mixture with best-outcome probability ${\sum }_{\omega }L(\omega )u(\omega )$. Mixture monotonicity then ranks all such mixtures. The reverse direction follows by taking expected values; positive affine functions preserve every comparison.^[ref]

The Von Neumann–Morgenstern utility theorem is a fundamental concept in decision theory and economics, particularly in the context of expected utility theory. It provides a framework for individuals to make rational choices under uncertainty. ### Key Elements of the Theorem: 1. **Rational Preferences**: The theorem assumes that individuals have preferences over risky prospects (lotteries) that can be represented in a consistent manner.