Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 39 3 iii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Normalizing the true density givesa gamma distribution of shape and rate . Its mean is , and the Gamma integral givesPut . Since , the positive adjustment coefficient satisfiesBoth sides are positive in this domain. Squaring, multiplying by , and dividing out the zero root yieldsThe discriminant is . The negative constant term makes one root positive and the other negative. The polynomial is negative at zero and has value four at one, so the positive root lies in and is not an extraneous solution introduced by squaring. Therefore the adjustment coefficient for shape-one-half gamma claims is
To compare it with the exponential calculation, write . Their difference issince . Thus the two proposed Lundberg inequality bounds are ordered asOnly is justified for the true claim law. The exponential calculation gives for a different model, not a valid guaranteed bound on the true ruin probability.
This exponential misspecification of shape-one-half gamma claims is optimistic: the true variance is , whereas the assumed exponential variance is . Its tail also decays at rate , more slowly than the assumed rate . Equivalently, for , the true transform is larger than , since . This stronger transform growth makes the true adjustment root smaller. Comparing upper bounds alone does not by itself prove an ordering of the two actual ruin probabilities. At both displayed bounds equal one.