Statistical decision theory Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
Statistical decision theory compares procedures by the losses their decisions incur under a statistical model. Specify observation laws , an action space and a loss function . A decision rule maps data to an action, and its risk function is
For estimating a normal mean from observations of known variance , the sample mean has squared-error loss risk . Under zero-one loss, the same framework describes classification in statistical learning and statistical hypothesis testing.
Different criteria compare the whole risk function differently. A Bayes decision rule minimizes risk averaged over a prior distribution. A minimax decision rule minimizes the worst-case risk. An admissible decision rule has no competitor with no greater risk everywhere and smaller risk somewhere. These criteria require the model, allowed actions and loss to be specified; accuracy alone does not define what mistakes cost.