Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2006 iii Paper 43 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Write , and for the three probability generating functions. Since both the claim count and every claim size are positive, . Conditioning on the count and using independence gives the random-sum transform identityThe crucial point is that the count recurrence begins at . Multiplying it by and summing, we obtainConsequently . The chain rule applied to the aggregate probability generating function therefore givesThese identities hold inside the unit disk, or as identities of formal power series. Since , every coefficient of the composition depends on only finitely many count probabilities.
Compare the coefficient of . The product contributes , and contributes . HenceThe required aggregate recursion for zero-truncated Panjer counts is initialized by and , and for every it isThe empty sum at is zero. Every term on the right is known or has a smaller aggregate index. Omitting would incorrectly apply the usual Panjer recursion with a zero initial value, producing zero for every aggregate probability.
For the zero-truncated Poisson distribution, for , so , and , with . ThusAs a direct probability generating function check, and therefore ; differentiation reproduces this recursion.