Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2003 iii Paper 39 1 ii Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Within the approximation that a factory has either zero or one accident, let be the accident count. The factories' independence gives . Given an accident, its cluster of claims has a Poisson distribution of mean , independently across factories. Its probability generating function is . Thus this is a binomial accident portfolio with Poisson clusters, withA factory can contribute no claims either because it has no accident or because its accident's Poisson cluster is empty. Hence the no-claim probability differs from the no-accident probability .
For , the accident probability mass function is . For ,Therefore its Panjer claim-count class parameters areAt the multiplier is zero, and afterwards both successive masses are zero, so the recurrence holds for all . Finally, and reproduce the same initialization .