Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 40 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
There is a genuine normalization error in the printed function. Write independently, and . The internal sum produces a scalar; taking its mean does not divide by . The literal returned value is thereforeSince and , its expectation isIt does not estimate unbiasedly unless , and no fixed control variate coefficient removes this bias. In particular the actual call with returnsThis is an instance of summing before taking a mean changes Monte Carlo normalization.
The intended corrected method replaces the sum by a sample mean:It uses symmetry to write the tail as , then Monte Carlo integration on a bounded interval, and finally a mean-zero control variate. For the intended estimator is , whose summands are smooth and bounded. Keeping the average normalization, andDifferentiating this quadratic gives the Cauchy tail control variate on a bounded interval coefficientHere , , so . AlsoConsequentlyThe negative sign is consistent with decreasing and increasing. One may estimate the covariance and variance using a separate pilot sample and fix the resulting coefficient for a fresh sample. This coefficient minimizes the literal function's variance as well, but its missing factor of still leaves the bias above.