Cauchy tail control variate on a bounded interval (${\beta }_{\ast }=\mathrm{Cov}(g(Y),H(Y))/\mathrm{Var}(H(Y))$)

For $Y$ uniform on $(0,2)$, put $g(y)=1/(\pi (1+y^2))$ and $H(y)=y^2-4/3$. Then $\mathbb{E}H=0$, and $1/2-2\overline{g-\beta H}$ estimates the standard Cauchy distribution probability above two. Its variance is $4\mathrm{Var}(g-\beta H)/n$, minimized by the displayed coefficient. Here $\mathrm{Var}(H)=64/45$ and $\mathrm{Cov}(g,H)=1/\pi -7\arctan (2)/(6\pi )$, so the optimal coefficient is negative. A coefficient estimated using a separate pilot can be fixed for a fresh unbiased production sample.