Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 iii Paper 32 2 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-07
Label batches before consulting the random-number table, so their labels are independent of the test results. A uniformly random permutation of , restricted to a smaller label set, induces a uniformly random ordering of that set. This provides a simple rejection-and-restriction scheme:
- For A, label each day's six batches . Use a fresh permutation, discard labels , and test the first remaining batch. Repeat independently on each working day. Each daily batch has inclusion probability , and five batches are tested per week.
- For B, label the fifteen weekly morning batches . Discard label 16 from a fresh permutation and choose the first three remaining labels. Use an independent permutation for the afternoon stratum. Every three-element subset within a stratum is equally likely, and each batch has inclusion probability . Six batches are tested per week.
- For C, label the weekdays . Keep the first label in this range from a fresh permutation and test all six batches on that day. Repeat independently each week. Every day, and hence every batch, has inclusion probability ; six batches are tested per week.
With independent random digits instead, rejection sampling gives the same uniform choices: for A keep only digits ; for C keep only . For B, use uniform two-digit numbers, retain labels , and reject repeats within a three-batch sample. Taking residues modulo six or fifteen from a table whose range is not divisible by that number would give unequal probabilities. These are respectively day-stratified simple random sampling, morning/afternoon stratified sampling, and a one-day design using cluster sampling. The printed word “rest” for A is interpreted as “test”, consistently with the surveillance task. If it instead meant leaving one batch untested, choose that omitted batch uniformly and test the other five; this alternative would test 25 batches per week, with inclusion probability , and has a different testing budget.
Probability sampling 2026-10-07
Probability sampling chooses observational units by a specified random mechanism with known inclusion probabilities. This separates design-based representativeness from the convenience of obtaining particular observations. Simple random sampling, stratified sampling and cluster sampling are different designs with different precision and cost properties.
Simple random sampling Created 2026-10-07 Updated 2026-10-14
Here simple random sampling means a random unordered subset of exactly distinct labels from , with every size- subset equally likely. The sample size is fixed in advance, , and sampling without replacement prevents duplicate units. This is SRSWOR; some texts also use "simple random sampling" for independent uniform draws with replacement, which is a different design.[ref]
Chapter 2: Simple Random Sampling. Sampling Theory, Chapter 2, Simple Random Sampling, PDF pp. 1–4: replacement conventions and ordered versus unordered sample probabilities
Every label has inclusion probability , but equal inclusion probabilities alone are insufficient. For example, from six labels choose either or with probability . Each label is included with probability , yet eighteen of the twenty size-three subsets are impossible: this is a two-group cluster sampling design. Unequal probability sampling deliberately changes inclusion probabilities, often to improve precision for a particular estimand, and generally requires an appropriately weighted estimator rather than the plain sample mean.
Consider the original mathematical population with labelled values , and let . The fifteen equiprobable subsets, followed by their sample means, areTheir sample means sum to , giving expected value . Their squared deviations from sum to , giving variance . This is an enumeration over hypothetical selections from six stipulated numbers, not measured survey data.
All fifteen size-two subsets and all thirty-six ordered replacement outcomes from six labelled values
. Details. With independent uniform sampling with replacement, the ordered outcomes each have probability . The two orders and are distinct outcomes, and is now possible. Forgetting order does not make the resulting unordered multisets equiprobable: has probability but has probability . The thirty-six sample means still have expected value , but their squared deviations sum to , giving variance . Avoiding duplicate labels improves precision for this fixed population.
