For independent rate- exponential distribution claims and a zero-based negative binomial distribution count of shape and parameter , the random-sum transform identity gives . This equals the transform of a compound binomial distribution with count and rate- claim sizes. Conditional on its positive count , the total has Erlang distribution, whose survival function is the inner exponential-polynomial sum. Conditioning yields the displayed finite mixture distribution formula for . It replaces an infinite mixture and includes the zero-total atom through the omitted term.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2002 iii Paper 35 1 Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Condition on the claim count. The empty random sum of independent claims is zero, and independence gives . Therefore the random-sum transform identity iswherever the composition is finite. This follows directly from the law of total expectation, rather than replacing the random count by its mean.
Put . For the specified negative binomial distribution, the negative binomial series gives . A rate- exponential distribution has moment-generating function . HenceThe last expression is exactly the moment-generating function of a compound binomial distribution with independent count and severitiesThe moment-generating function exists in a neighborhood of zero, so its uniqueness identifies the distributions. In particular, the new claim sizes have mean , not , and both aggregate distributions have an atom at zero. This is the negative-binomial sum of exponential claims representation with the severity rate explicitly retained.
Conditional on , the aggregate has Erlang distribution with density on . Repeated integration by parts of its tail givesIndeed, after substituting , the integral reduces recursively to the corresponding integral with exponent , terminating at . Applying the law of total probability yields the original infinite mixture distribution tailApplying the same argument to the compound binomial distribution gives instead the finite Erlang-mixture tail for a negative-binomial exponential aggregate:The two tails are equal. The binomial representation replaces an infinite sum by a finite exact calculation, eliminating the need to choose a claim-count truncation and control its omitted tail. The inner sums can be evaluated recursively, using for their exponential-weighted terms.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2009 iii Paper 37 1 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
For the binomial distribution, . Thus the compound binomial distribution hasSet . Since and , differentiating three times givesThe first two cumulants, for comparison, are and .
Choose deterministic claim sizes . Then , so andThis is strictly negative for and . A concrete negative-skewness example is , , , for whichThere is no contradiction with positive claims: bounded Bernoulli-type totals can have more mass near their upper value and a longer left tail.
Put , , and . A compound Poisson distribution with count mean and severity law has variance . A compound binomial distribution with trials, probability , and that same severity law has variance . The individual-policy variance is . The Cauchy-Schwarz inequality gives , proving the ordering. Equality of the first two variances requires constant ; it need not imply equality of the distributions. If all probabilities and severity laws are identical, the binomial compound approximation is exactly the individual model.