Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2016 iii Paper 201 3 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-06
Write . The hypothesis implies and rules out a constant random variable. In particular . The cumulant-generating function is strictly convex, since its second derivative is the positive variance under exponential tilting, and , as .
If , there is a unique with , and the Legendre transform gives . ThusIf , use differentiability at zero: , so for some sufficiently small ,In either case choose a parameter with , and choose . The Cramér theorem gives, for all sufficiently large ,The Chernoff bound at the chosen parameter gives . The conditioning event has positive probability for every , since all summands can simultaneously exceed . ThereforeTaking the complement within the conditioning event proves the conditional concentration at a large-deviation threshold:The farther tail has a strictly larger exponential cost. The argument also works when reaches or exceeds the upper support endpoint, without requiring an interior maximizer there.