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For the conserved-mean convection amplitude equations before amplitude reduction, the functional $V=⟨\mu |\nabla T{|}^2/2-(\Delta T{)}^2/2-|\nabla T{|}^4/4⟩$ generates a gradient flow with increasing $V$. Periodic integration by parts identifies its variational gradient with the evolution equation. Completing the square gives $V={\mu }^2/4-⟨(|\nabla T{|}^2-\mu {)}^2/4+(\Delta T{)}^2/2⟩\le {\mu }^2/4$. Hence ${\int }_0^{\infty }⟨T_t^2⟩dt<\infty$ along a globally smooth solution. Under compactness of the orbit, its limiting states are stationary; a nonstationary periodic orbit is impossible.

The spatial mean is conserved: averaging every term in the partial differential equation over the periodic cell gives ${\partial }_t⟨T⟩=0$. Adding a constant to $T$ also preserves the equation. We therefore fix the mean, conveniently at zero. This qualification is essential: without it the constant Fourier mode contributes an additional neutral direction, so the centre subspace would have five real dimensions rather than four.

On a Fourier mode $e^{i(mx+ny)}$, the linearized linear operator has eigenvalueOn the fixed-mean subspace, the first eigenvalues to reach zero are those with $m^2+n^2=1$. At $\mu =1$ these are the modes $e^{\pm ix},e^{\pm iy}$; every other nonconstant Fourier mode is strictly damped. The reality condition leaves two complex amplitudes, hence a four-real-dimensional centre manifold on the fixed-mean subspace. The trivial state loses linear stability as $\mu$ increases through one.

Use slow time $\tau ={\epsilon }^{2}t$, and write $T=\epsilon W+{\epsilon }^3{T}_3+\cdots$, whereThere is no quadratic nonlinearity, so no forced second-order correction is needed. At order ${\epsilon }^3$, with $\mu =1+{\epsilon }^2\nu$, projection onto the critical Fourier modes givesThe correction $T_3$ does not contribute to the critical projection because the linear operator vanishes on those modes. To find the nonlinear coefficient of $e^{ix}$, split the divergence term intoThe first term contributes $-3|A{|}^{2}A$. In the second, only the zero-$y$ Fourier coefficient of $W_y^2$ contributes; it is $2|B{|}^2$, and differentiating $W_x$ once more gives $-2|B{|}^{2}A$. The third term has zero $y$-average, and the fourth has no $x$-dependent critical component. Interchanging $x,y$ gives the other amplitude equation. Thus the conserved-mean convection amplitude equations areTo establish the selected planform, put $A=r{e}^{i\theta }$, $B=s{e}^{i\psi }$. The phases are constant and the magnitudes obeyFor $\nu >0$, the square state has $r=s=\sqrt{\nu /5}$. Its magnitude Jacobian matrix is $-(2\nu /5)\left(\begin{array}{cc}3& 2\\ 2& 3\end{array}\right)$, with eigenvalues $-2\nu$ and $-2\nu /5$. Its two neutral phases correspond to translation symmetry. The pure roll has $r^2=\nu /3,s=0$; an infinitesimal $B$ disturbance grows at rate $\nu -2\nu /3=\nu /3>0$. The other pure roll is equivalent, while the trivial state is unstable for $\nu >0$. Consequently squares, with $|A{|}^2=|B{|}^2=\nu /5$, are the stable small-amplitude planform, modulo translations. For $\nu <0$ the trivial state is stable.