Collision-ejection lifetime of a comet Created 2026-10-05 Updated 2026-11-05
The collision-ejection lifetime of a comet combines two ways to remove it from a specified orbital population: impact and gravitational ejection. If these can be approximated as constant competing Poisson process rates and , the survival probability and mean lifetime are
Equivalently, . The probability that collision is the first removal is .
Coplanar comet collision time and planetary ejection of a comet estimate the constituent processes under different encounter assumptions. Their reciprocal times should only be added when they refer to a consistent population and approximately stationary rates. Repeated planetary scattering can change the orbit and correlate encounters, invalidating a single exponential lifetime.
A coplanar target sweeps a strip of width through the comet's local position probability. Hence the relevant geometric collision cross-section is a length, and the rare collision rate per comet is .
Using the corrected phase-mixed comet surface density and the notation , , the coplanar comet collision time is
For , this becomes , so at fixed stellar mass and planetary mass density. This is the mean waiting time for one orbiting comet; the mean interval between impacts from such independent comets is . It assumes rare encounters and orbital phase mixing, not a Poisson process derived from a single deterministic trajectory.