Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2008 ia Paper 2 12F Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-14
Use the positive-support convention for the geometric distribution and put . Differentiating the convergent geometric series givesConsequentlySubtracting the square of the expectation from the second moment yields
For the die, this is the coupon collector problem. When scores are still missing, let count rolls up to and including the next newly observed score. Every fresh roll has success probability , so has a geometric distribution of parameter . These six successive waiting times are independent: conditional on the entire past at the start of a stage, its waiting-time distribution depends only on the number , not on the identities of the missing scores. Iterated conditioning therefore factors their joint distribution. The total number of rolls is .
Using linearity of expectation givesUsing variance additivity for independent random variables, or the coupon collector waiting-time variance formula just derived by this decomposition, givesHence the requested standard deviation isThe hint rounds the sum of squares from to ; using that rounded value gives , consistent at the precision of the hint. The exact computation preserves the slightly more precise value above.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2013 ia Paper 2 11F Solution Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-10-07
Use the positive-support geometric distribution, for , . Differentiating the geometric series suppliesFor the jar, let be the waiting time to remove one red ball when exactly red balls remain. Every draw has success probability , so is geometric with that parameter. The are independent: after each success, fresh independent draws begin a new stage, and its conditional waiting distribution depends only on the deterministic count , not on earlier waiting times. Replacing a green ball leaves that stage's count unchanged.
Thus the coupon collector problem decomposition is , andThis is the coupon collector waiting-time variance. For , the formula correctly gives zero variance and a deterministic one-minute completion.