Gambler's ruin Created 2026-09-24 Updated 2026-11-05
Gambler's ruin is the absorption problem for a fortune that changes by one unit per game. Let , with independent wins of Probability and losses of Probability . Stop when the fortune reaches zero or the target . Zero is ruin; reaching is success.
The success Probability has boundary values , and satisfies . Solving this second-order recurrence gives
Finite-interval exit times have geometric tails, so absorption occurs almost surely and ruin has Probability . The fair case is linear because the fortune itself is harmonic; the biased case uses the harmonic exponential .
For a fair game with initial fortune three and target ten, success has Probability . The Expected duration of symmetric gambler's ruin is , giving 21 steps in this example. The same local first-step method produces expected durations, discounted absorption probabilities and conditional durations; their different boundary conditions encode different questions about the same paths.
Write for the quantity denoted in the question, to distinguish it from the random-walk increments. Absorption at zero at time zero gives , and starting at gives . For , condition on the first step and use independence of the remaining increments. That step contributes one factor of , so the discounted gambler's ruin hitting probability satisfies
The absorption time is finite almost surely: in each block of steps there is a probability bounded below by a positive constant of reaching a boundary by successive steps in one direction.
Trying gives , with roots
They are positive and distinct because and . Hence the general solution is . Enforcing both boundary values gives
This includes the unbiased walk without a special limiting case, since the discount keeps the roots distinct. For uniqueness, a difference of two solutions has zero boundary values and its largest absolute value satisfies if attained in the interior. Since , .