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For a finite family, the random variable $N={\sum }_i{1}_{A_i}$ counts the events that occur. Linearity of expectation gives $\mathbb{E}N={\sum }_i\mathbb{P}(A_i)$, while $\mathbb{P}(N\ge 1)$ is the exact union probability. Their difference isAn outcome in exactly $k\ge 1$ events contributes $k-1$ extra counts, weighted by its probability. This nonnegative difference vanishes exactly in equality in Boole's inequality. For two events it is $\mathbb{P}(A\cap B)$, as the inclusion-exclusion principle for probabilities shows. For more events, the Bonferroni inequalities use pairwise and higher intersection information to bound the exact union probability; blindly subtracting pairwise intersections from the sum gives a lower bound, rather than a corrected upper bound.

Severe overlap can make the union bound arbitrarily pessimistic. Let all $m$ events be the same event $A$ with probability $1/m$, where $m\ge 1$ is an integer. A concrete model is the discrete uniform distribution on $\{1,\dots ,m\}$ with $A=\{1\}$. The exact union probability is $1/m$, whereas the sum and capped bound are both one. The ratio is $m$: adding more names for the same event does not create more ways to fail. The identity above describes the gap in the uncapped sum; capping at one can reduce that gap.