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Let $(A_t,B_t)$ be a Markov jump process on integer populations, with rateswhen $a,b>0$, where $\kappa >0$. Make both axes absorbing, so the fight ends when one population reaches zero. Start at $(N,b_N)$, with $b_N=\lfloor \alpha N\rfloor$; when $\alpha N$ is integral this is the printed initial condition exactly. The harmless rounding convention makes the model defined for every integer $N$.

Use the embedded jump chain $(A_j,B_j)$ rather than physical time. Its probabilities of the two losses are respectively $b/(a+b)$ and $a/(a+b)$, independently of $\kappa$. It reaches an axis after at most $N+b_N\le 2N$ steps; hold it constant thereafter. PutBefore absorption its two increments are $-2a+1$ and $2b-1$, soAfter absorption set ${\mu }_j=0$. Consequentlyis a discrete-time martingale. All populations are at most $N$, so each martingale difference is bounded in absolute value by $2N+2\le 4N$. The total drift up to step $2N$ is at most $2N$. This is the squared-population near-invariant for stochastic attrition.

The two-sided Azuma-Hoeffding inequality states that a martingale with $m$ differences bounded by $C$ satisfies $\mathbb{P}(|M_m|\ge z)\le 2\exp (-z^2/(2m{C}^2))$. Its exponential estimate follows by applying the conditional Hoeffding lemma to each centered difference, iterating, and optimizing the exponential Markov bound. With $m=2N$ and $C=4N$ it gives

Let $c=\sqrt{1-{\alpha }^2}>0$, and let $X^N=A_{2N}/N$ be the final proportion. If the first population survives, then the second is zero and $D_{2N}/N^2=(X^N{)}^2$. Hence $|X^N-c|>\delta$ impliesIf the first population is extinguished, $X^N=0$ and $D_{2N}\le 0$. This can satisfy the indicated deviation event only when $\delta <c$, and then $|D_{2N}-c^2{N}^2|\ge c^2{N}^2>c\delta N^2$. Thus the same implication holds in both cases.

The initial rounding error obeys $|D_0-c^2{N}^2|=|{\alpha }^2{N}^2-b_N^2|\le 2N$. Combining it with the drift bound shows that the deviation event forcesfor all sufficiently large $N$. Set $\eta =c\delta /2$ in the preceding concentration inequality. We concludefor sufficiently large $N$, and thereforeThe symmetric stochastic attrition process thus has exponential concentration of terminal stochastic attrition survivors. The deterministic equations conserve $a^2-b^2$ and predict the same surviving fraction, but the martingale argument supplies the stronger exponential probability estimate required here.