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For a log-mean-reverting price, set $a=e^{-\alpha (T-t)}$. The Ornstein-Uhlenbeck transition distribution gives conditional log-mean $a\log S_t+(1-a)\tilde{\mu }$ and log-variance ${\sigma }^2(1-a^2)/(2\alpha )$. The moment-generating function of a normal distribution therefore gives the displayed formula for $F(t,T)=\mathbb{E}[S_T\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t]$. It is a martingale in $t$ for fixed $T$, by the tower property of conditional expectation, and the Itô formula yieldsThis uses the same probability measure as the specified conditional expectation. It describes futures pricing only when that measure is an appropriate pricing measure, with the required cash-flow conventions. For a non-dividend-paying traded stock and constant interest rate, the forward contract delivery price follows the usual carry relation instead.

With continuous cash settlement and a money-market risk-neutral measure, discounted futures gains have zero drift; under the necessary true-martingale integrability, the futures quote is a martingale ending at the terminal spot price. The forward contract discount-weighted expectation is a different valuation expression.

Buy $1/F_0^T$ shares and take a short forward contract for $1/F_0^T$ shares at delivery price $F_0^T$. The forward has zero initial value, and the combined terminal payoff isTherefore the synthetic zero-coupon bond has initial priceIts implied continuously compounded maturity yield is $r_T=T^{-1}\log (F_0^T/S_0)>0$.

To replicate a constant-rate risk-free asset throughout the interval, the market must support dynamically coherent discounting, not just this one terminal payment. A sufficient condition is that for all $0\le t\le u\le T$ the fair forward prices satisfy $F_t^u=S_t{e}^{r(u-t)}$ for the same deterministic $r>0$, with the required stock/forward positions tradable and no intervening payments. Then $P(t,u)=S_t/F_t^u=e^{-r(u-t)}$, and a suitably scaled fixed-maturity zero-coupon bond grows deterministically as $e^{rt}$. A single initial forward quote does not establish these intermediate-time conditions; even a flat initial yield curve need not imply deterministic future rates.

Keep the maturity $T$ fixed and write $F(t,T)=\exp L(t,x_t)$, whereAs calendar time increases, ${\partial }_{t}a=\alpha a$, so $L_x=a$, $L_{xx}=0$ and $L_t=\alpha a(x-\tilde{\mu })-{\sigma }^2{a}^2/2$. Applying the Itô formula to $L$ and then to its exponential givesThe Itô formula's exponential correction cancels the displayed drift of $L$. The zero drift also follows from the tower property of conditional expectation: for $t\le u\le T$, ${\mathbb{E}}_t[F(u,T)]={\mathbb{E}}_t[S_T]=F(t,T)$. In particular $F(T,T)=S_T$, while the quote's instantaneous spot volatility approaches $\sigma$ as expiry approaches.

This is a martingale under the same measure used in the stipulated conditional expectation. To interpret it as futures pricing, that measure must be a suitable pricing measure. For a non-dividend-paying traded stock at a deterministic interest rate, the absence of arbitrage instead gives a forward contract delivery price $S_t{e}^{r(T-t)}$. A physical-measure expectation under the given mean-reverting drift is not automatically that price; the question's expectation convention is sufficient for the calculation above, but not for this additional identification.

A futures contract fixes a maturity and underlying quantity, but its quoted delivery price is marked to market: gains and losses from quote changes are settled through the margin account, typically daily. A newly settled position has zero contract value; the quoted futures price is not an upfront purchase price for that position. At maturity the quote equals the spot price. In the continuous-settlement idealization, discounted futures gains must be local martingales under the money-market risk-neutral measure. Thus the quote has zero pricing-measure drift. Assuming the relevant integrability makes it a true martingale, $\boxed{F_{tT}={\mathbb{E}}_Q[S_T\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t]}$.

This is a futures pricing formula. In contrast, an unsettled forward contract has delivery quote ${\mathbb{E}}_Q[D_{tT}{S}_T\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t]/{\mathbb{E}}_Q[D_{tT}\mid {\mathcal{F}}_t]$, where $D_{tT}=e^{-{\int }_t^T{r}_{u}du}$. Stochastic interest rates can make the two quotes differ. Contango means the futures quote is above spot for the maturity considered, while backwardation means it is below spot; futures curves are correspondingly described as rising or falling when comparing maturities.

For the Multivariate Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, multiplication by the matrix exponential $e^{At}$ gives $d(e^{At}{X}_t)=e^{At}d{B}_t$, henceFor deterministic $X_0=x_0$, the Gaussian distribution has mean $e^{-At}{x}_0$ and covarianceEquivalently $\dot{C}=I-AC-C{A}^{\mathsf{T}}$, $C_0=0$. No symmetry or invertibility of $A$ is required. This covariance can also be evaluated from a single block matrix exponential: if the upper-right block of $\exp (t\left(\begin{array}{cc}-A& I\\ 0& A^{\mathsf{T}}\end{array}\right))$ is $H_t$, then $C_t=H_t{e}^{-A^{\mathsf{T}}t}$. If $X_0$ is random, these assertions hold conditionally on $X_0$; the unconditional law need not be Gaussian. A stationary Gaussian law exists when the eigenvalues of $A$ have positive real parts, but stability is unnecessary for the finite-time formulas.

For $\tau =T-t$, the conditional mean of $X_T$ is $e^{-A\tau }{X}_t$ and its conditional covariance is $C_{\tau }$. The Gaussian exponential-moment formula therefore gives the explicit quoteIt tends to $e^{b\cdot X_t}=S_t$ as $T\downarrow t$, as required.

A prepaid forward pays for delivery of an asset at a future time entirely in advance. In the Black-Scholes model with deterministic continuous dividend yield $q$, one share delivered at $T$ costs the displayed amount at $t$. Reinvesting the dividends on $e^{-q(T-t)}$ shares replicates one terminal share. An ordinary forward contract instead has no initial payment and a delivery payment fixed in advance; at constant interest rate $r$ its fair delivery price is $S_t{e}^{(r-q)(T-t)}$.

For a non-dividend-paying stock, buy $1/F_t^T$ shares and short a forward contract for the same number of shares at its fair delivery price $F_t^T>0$. The combined payoff is one at $T$, and the initial cost is $S_t/F_t^T$. This replicates a unit zero-coupon bond without initially assuming an independently traded bank account. A single maturity quote determines that discount factor; it does not determine the entire future short-rate process.