Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 52 4 a Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
Let be the infectious proportion in a closed population. With homogeneous frequency-dependent transmission rate and recovery rate , the SIS model isThe basic reproduction number is the expected number of secondary infections produced by a typical newly infected individual in an otherwise susceptible population under the specified contact conditions. Here the infectious duration has mean , so .
For the attracting endemic equilibrium has . The homogeneous SIS susceptible fraction is thereforeFor the physical equilibrium is disease-free, , . At equality approach to zero is algebraic. Thus is an endemic relation, not a formula demanding more than one susceptible person per person below the invasion threshold.
Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge 2001 iii Paper 52 4 c Solution Created 2026-10-03 Updated 2026-10-14
The high-contact assumptions give away from a degeneracy. Since , perturbing the larger eigenvalue in the assortatively mixed two-risk-group SIS model givesFor the biologically useful high-risk-core regime , put . Substituting and into the two equilibrium equations givesThus the group susceptible fractions and their population-weighted total areThe small-core SIS endemic expansion shows why the homogeneous SIS susceptible fraction relation fails for a mixed population: as the high-risk fraction tends to zero, while . A small high-risk core sustains infection even though almost everyone in the population remains susceptible. Even need not equal at first order.
For completeness, if with a fixed gap from threshold, small gives disease-free equilibrium and total susceptibility one. If , the low-risk group already sustains infection. Put and let be the positive root of . The first-order coefficients areAgain it tends to rather than . These regular expansions require fixed nonzero gaps. At the spectral splitting is generally order ; at , low-risk infection is also order , so a regular first-order Taylor expansion is inappropriate. An exact endemic replacement for the scalar identity is that the susceptible-weighted next-generation matrix has spectral radius one.