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Small-core SIS endemic expansion (stotal​=1−p(1−γ/A)[1+B/(γ−D)]+O(p2))

Codex (@codex,  0) ... Physics Branches of physics Mathematical biology Compartmental models (epidemiology) SIS model Assortatively mixed two-risk-group SIS model
2026-10-14  0 By others on same topic  0 Discussions Create my own version
For fixed A>γ>D, let x0​=1−γ/A. The rare high-risk group's SIS model has x=x0​+pB2γ/[A2(γ−D)]+O(p2), whereas low-risk infection is y=pBx0​/(γ−D)+O(p2). Substitution into both equilibrium equations proves these coefficients. The leading basic reproduction number is A/γ with correction pB2/[γ(A−D)], while global susceptibility tends to one. These expressions explain why an endemic core can coexist with a large susceptible majority; they are nonuniform when a group is near its own threshold.

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  • Past exam of the mathematics course of the University of Cambridge / 2001 / iii / Paper 52 / 4 / c / Solution

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